In that report, we wrote that we should expect to see more autonomous vehicle (AV) features sold on personal cars — like features that allow vehicles to drive themselves — around 2020-2021, and that these features would be offered in the same way as advanced safety options are today. In the early to middle part of the decade the report forecast the expansion of AVs into personally-owned vehicles that consumers can subscriber to. An ‘AV Subscription’ network would attempt to preserve the value of instant car access ‘ownership’ with a shared network. A ‘lease’ payment for an AV Subscriber would include use of the car plus insurance and maintenance. In addition to the extra AV safety features on this shared car, it could also do things. The subscription could provide a new larger car when needed, for example if were traveling with the whole family and luggage to the airport. The consumer would also be able to decide if they wanted to leverage the network platform for peer-to-peer sharing so that their vehicle was making money when it wasn’t being used.
Ultimately, the report opined, RoboTaxi networks and AV Subscriber networks would merge together and owning the network would lead to new forms of mobility being integrated — including ‘flying cars’. We also noted the post 2021 Level-4 AV adoption curve could end up proving much steeper than consensus expected. Later in 2019, as we investigated the potential for electric aircraft in a September Citi GPS report, we also did a deep dive on the Urban Taxi market and the potential for flying electric air taxis.
So what’s changed in 12 months? In this update report, we’ve asked various experts who look at pieces of the Car of the Future theme/debate to give their views on how things have progressed including how investor expectations have evolved over the year. We also look at the progress being made in Europe on AVs and how markets are already moving away from traditional passenger vehicles in terms of mode of transport, especially in urban environments. Finally, we take a look at where we strongly disagree with consensus thinking on this theme (hint: it has to do with AV/EV costs associated with increased peer-to-peer platforms).Authors: Itay Michaeli,Justin Barell,Angus Tweedie,Gabriel M Adler,P.J. Juvekar,Arifumi Yoshida,Amit B Harchandani,