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Executive Summary

Arthur Pineda

Igor Cesarec

Judy Zhang

Ashwin Shirvaikar

Jason B Bazinet

Graeme McDonald

Thomas A Singlehurst

Ronit Ghose

Jim Suva

Carl Benedikt Frey

Robert Garlick

James Ainley

Suzanne R Gyorgy

Martin Wilkie

Amit B Harchandani

Arthur Lai

Surendra Goyal

Nick Coulter

Alicia Yap

Paul Lejuez

Asiya Merchant

Aaron Guy

Tyler Radke

Nelson Cheung

Daniel Grosslight

Nicholas Jones

Michelle Ma

Lara Ouvaroff

James A Shuck

Sathish B Sivakumar

Amy Thompson

Joanne Wuensch

<h3>The Coming of the Post-Production Society</h3>
Ever have that d&eacute;j&agrave; vu feeling? Last year about this time, we published our <a style="text-decoration: underline;" href="https://www.citivelocity.com/citigps/technology-at-work-v5-0/" data-link-source="tiny">Technology at Work v5.0</a> report and discussed how COVID-19 restrictions were being lifted and the end of &lsquo;work from home&rsquo; was on the horizon. Apparently, that was just a practice run. This time it&rsquo;s the real deal.
Around the world, businesses are having robust conversations about how employees can safely return to the office. In some regions, restrictions are being lifted at the same speed at which they were implemented back in March 2020. But while we seem to be moving in a direction back to &lsquo;normal&rsquo;, and talking about returning to our pre-pandemic ways, in reality, things can&rsquo;t just go back to the way they were. During the pandemic, working from home became a thing and the stigma around it disappeared. We were okay with losing our commutes and used those hours to work a little more. Our kids didn&rsquo;t stop learning as education shifted from the classroom to the home. And the use of digital everything accelerated &mdash; shopping, groceries, doctor visits, payments, and entertainment. There are definitely things that were part of the &lsquo;new normal&rsquo; during the pandemic that we&rsquo;ll be happy to lose, but some of the changes are going to stick around. Working five days a week in the office seems a lot &mdash; surveys indicate three feels like a better number &mdash; and a winter snow day from school might become something only you remember. But importantly, working from home came with the realization that if a job isn&rsquo;t place dependent and doesn&rsquo;t need to be done in an office, it can also be done in a cheaper location offshore. Furloughed workers might find their jobs replaced by automation. And as the accelerated shift to digital becomes more permanent, jobs might disappear in brick-and-mortar entities like stores, gyms, and movie theaters In the report that follows, we look at how the COVID-19 pandemic may have pushed advanced economies into an era where not only manufacturing jobs get outsourced and automated, but service jobs do as well. This is a world where emerging markets no longer look to manufacturing as a stepping stone to prosperity, and instead use technological advances to attract offshore service jobs such as accounting and banking. The acceleration of digital during the pandemic may jump-start a new wave of automation, meaning the jobs of the future need to be ones that are sheltered from both automation and offshoring. As governments shift their fiscal spending from providing life preservers to providing fiscal stimulus, the focus is on creating jobs through the green and digital economies. Longer term, policies and stimulus need to focus on creating a competitive advantage in innovation and developing environments that foster interactions, social networks, and knowledge transfers Authors: Dr. Carl Benedikt Frey,James Ainley,Jason B Bazinet,Igor Cesarec,Nelson Cheung,Nick Coulter,Robert Garlick,Ronit Ghose, CFA,Surendra Goyal, CFA,Daniel Grosslight,Aaron Guy,Suzanne R Gyorgy,Amit B Harchandani,Nicholas Jones,Arthur Lai,Paul Lejuez, CFA, CPA,Michelle Ma, CFA,Graeme McDonald,Asiya Merchant, CFA,Lara Ouvaroff,Arthur Pineda,Tyler Radke,Ashwin Shirvaikar, CFA,James A Shuck,Thomas A Singlehurst, CFA,Sathish B Sivakumar,Jim Suva, CPA,Amy Thompson,Martin Wilkie,Joanne Wuensch,Alicia Yap, CFA,Judy Zhang,

The Coming of the Post-Production Society

In this new GPS report, Technology at Work v6.0, the team looks at how digital acceleration during the pandemic could drive a shift in the economy from post-industrial to post-production due to increased automation and offshoring risk for the services sector, similar to what’s already happened in the manufacturing sector. We argue that governments and policymakers need to boost innovation and new job creation to offset production tasks that are offshored and automated away. The focus should be on skills that foster innovation and exploration to drive employment in areas focusing on the early stages of the technology lifecycle.

Technology at Work v6.0

The Oxford Martin School is a world-leading centre of pioneering research that addresses global challenges. We invest in research that cuts across disciplines to tackle a wide range of issues such as climate change, disease and inequality. We support novel, high risk and multidisciplinary projects that may not fit within conventional funding channels. We do this because breaking boundaries can produce results that could dramatically improve the wellbeing of this and future generations.In pursuit of our mission to collaborate across world markets and conduct ongoing multi-disciplinary global conversation, Citi has partnered with The Oxford Martin School at the University of Oxford to collaborate on the global issues that the world is facing today and develop solutions.

Oxford Martin School

When Citi and the Oxford Martin School co-wrote the first Technology at Work Citi GPS report in 2015 it highlighted how technology, including automation, robotics, digitization and AI, was sweeping through many industries, but with it came a growing risk to jobs &mdash; Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne&rsquo;s analysis at the Oxford Martin School highlighted that 47% of U.S. employment was susceptible to automation and has been called one of the most influential studies of our time. By the time Technology at Work 2 had been written in 2016, we (together with the World Bank) identified employment risks averaged 57% in the OECD, including India at 69% and China at 77%. Many articles and books since than have warned about this growing threat and it&rsquo;s easy to see automation impacting jobs all around us, yet a decade on from the Great Financial Crisis we have record high employment levels across many OECD countries. So is the fear over-hyped? As the next generation prepares to enter the world of work, are there also big employment opportunities to offset the risks?
As Carl explains in the first chapter of this report, while history has shown progress creates as well as destroys jobs, the process can be very difficult for large parts of society for a very long time. Carl tackles this with great insight in his new book The Technology Trap: Capital, Labor, and Power in the Age of Automation. An additional problem during technological revolutions is it can be easier to see risks to current jobs than to predict jobs yet to be invented. This report is designed to help provide a clearer vision of what could be an uncertain employment future. On a sector and economy basis, Citi experts, whose job it is to help investors predict and influence the future, provide their thoughts on the job and skill trends ahead and on changes, risks, and opportunities.
Chapter 3 provides a unique collection of advice. We borrow from Isaac Newton &ldquo;If I have seen further than others, it is by standing upon the shoulders of giants.&rdquo; What better way to be informed about what the future will look like than hear from some of the leaders who are inventing it. This includes: 12 CEOs from around the world; several experts on innovation; the U.K. MP for Skills and Apprenticeships; one of the leading educators in China; the former Minister for Universities and Science in the U.K.; the former Treasury Secretary of the U.S. and other leading economists; leaders of foundations; experts in diversity and inclusion; and several authors of related books on this topic. We are extremely grateful to this extraordinary group of experts who have provided their wisdom because they care about helping the next generation and finding solutions. The other good news is that plenty of solutions do exist, unlike the first industrial revolution, most people now have the ability to vote for the society they want to live in.
Since the industrial revolution, GDP has risen over 100 fold and innovation has brought huge progress in health, prosperity, and betterment of life. In a 2016 survey, we found 76% of investors surveyed described themselves at techno-optimists, but many were also understandably techno-anxious in this era of disruptive innovation. The report is designed to either dig into or dip into, with a simple aim to help to take &lsquo;change by the hand&rsquo; and find tailwinds to make your journey easier in the future of work.

Navigating the Future of Work

Change is necessary for progress, but with it comes risk. Winston Churchill once commented “if you don’t take change by the hand, it will take you by the throat.” The opportunities and risks multiply in our era of rapid change, driven by a hyper connected and digitizing world that is too fast for many.

Technology at Work v4.0

Georgios Ierodiaconou

Michael Bilerman

Walter H Pritchard

Elizabeth Curmi

Nithin Pejaver

Chinchih Chen

Mark A Manduca

Jenny Ping

Monique Pollard

Ami Galla

As lockdowns are slowly lifted and the threat of COVID-19 lessens, questions are being asked around what the work environment will look like post-COVID-19. For some, there&rsquo;s no question about returning to the workplace. But the workplace is going to be very different in an environment of social distancing. For others, working from home was unexpectedly refreshing and enhanced productivity. In fact, Gallup found three in five U.S. workers who have been doing their jobs from home during the COVID-19 pandemic would prefer to continue to work remotely as much as possible, once restrictions have lifted. The COVID-19 pandemic was able to accelerate the shift to remote working as the digital world is finally at a stage where it can support technology like virtual meetings. The digital revolution enabled telework and the upcoming roll out of 5G will drive telerobotics and augmented and virtual reality (AR/VR), leading to increased automation globally Improved virtual and telepresence could also shift the development path for emerging markets, away from a manufacturing-led growth model (like China) more to a service-led growth model (like India). But the sudden shift to remote work has also highlighted inequalities in the workforce. Jobs which can be done remotely tend to be higher paying jobs and those that require physical presence tend to be lower paying/lower education jobs. This means the pandemic lockdowns have disproportionately affected incomes for those in lower paying jobs which couldn&rsquo;t switch to remote work. The biggest takeaway from the report is we need to innovate to increase our resilience to further disruptions and avoid the societal disruptions caused by the recent lockdowns. The report also focuses on trends we see accelerating due to the COVID-19 crisis. The adoption of education technology (edtech) should get a boost as the pandemic is likely to shift attitudes towards increasing edtech spend with schools needing to teach remotely. The value of connectivity has increased during the pandemic and telecom network infrastructure has enabled functions such as eHealth and Big Data &amp; Monitoring. And the rapid shift to work from home has been a catalyst for next-generation software focused on productivity &amp; collaboration. Business travel is likely to decline as virtual meetings replace face-to-face ones and in turn adversely affect the airline and travel industry. As corporates rethink office space, we look at the debate over the role of cities and real estate. Finally, a silver lining from remote working &mdash; air pollution has declined and we look at the positive environmental effects of working from home one day a week. Most importantly, we hope you and your families remain safe and healthy throughout this difficult time.Authors: Carl Benedikt Frey,Chinchih Chen,James Ainley,Michael Bilerman,Elizabeth Curmi, PhD.,Ami Galla,Robert Garlick,Aaron Guy,Georgios Ierodiaconou,Mark A Manduca,Nithin Pejaver, CFA,Jenny Ping,Monique Pollard,Walter H Pritchard, CFA,Thomas A Singlehurst, CFA,

A New World of Remote Work

And just like that, working from home is a real thing. With the coronavirus spreading, and lockdowns ordered, many office workers suddenly became ‘work from homers’. If you were lucky, you grabbed a few things off your desk on your last day in the office in case you had to work on your laptop from the dining room for a few days. But that turned into a couple of weeks and then a few months. At some point you realized one or two things about working from home – you needed a proper chair and an extra monitor. You also missed your commute as it signified the end of your working day. Now, work and life blend together and somehow it always feels like Tuesday. And that’s before the extra stresses of home schooling, all-the-time family time, and the weekly strategic battle to find a pack of toilet paper.

Technology at Work v5.0

Andrew Pitt

Ian Goldin

Benjamin Nabarro

Kathleen Boyle

In this report, we have sought to take a detailed and balanced perspective on the impact of immigration on advanced economies, and particularly on those in Europe and North America where the popular concerns regarding migration appear to be especially acute. This report forms part of a wider series of work in our Citi GPS series where we have looked at complex societal issues that have a profound impact on global growth and the performance of the wider economy. The originality of this report is both in providing fresh evidence of the implications for growth and the dynamism of economies and also in our consideration of the fiscal costs and benefits of migration in terms of taxes and expenditures. In addition, we have attempted to understand, explain and analyze the political debate around migration through reviewing much of the available literature and opinion polls to assess where and how the fault lines have occurred in the public discourse on migration. This report is focused on economic migrants who have not been compelled to migrate either as refugees or through force. Although economic migrants may come from extreme poverty, by and large they migrate as a matter of choice. Their destination countries also have a choice whether to accept them or not. In this report we use the term migrants and immigrants, or migration and immigration, interchangeably to refer to the movement of people across national borders. To produce this report, Citi Research has partnered with Professor Ian Goldin who not only has worked with us for over five years through our research partnership with The Oxford Martin School but who is also a specialist on migration and who is an author of the highly acclaimed 2011 book Exceptional People: How Migration Shaped our World and Will define Our Future. Professor Goldin is currently the Oxford University Professor of Globalisation and Development. His full biography can be found in the author block of this report. In the preparation of this report, we have conducted a very extensive literature review of the research written on migration, updated the data sets from Professor Goldin&rsquo;s 2011 work, and undertaken a number of new data modelling exercises. While some very clear conclusions emerge as we outline below in this introductory summary, we have also sought to highlight areas of acknowledged academic or public dispute in the narrative on migration. We have also tried to balance economic analysis with social impacts and an understanding of the drivers of the political debate. Part of the objective of this report is to provide a more granular approach to throw light on the growing disconnect between public perceptions regarding migration and the actual trends. This disconnect is illustrated, for example, in the change in negative perceptions regarding immigration in different European countries, which suggests that there is almost no direct correlation between the number of migrants (and refugees) that a country accepts and the attitudes to migration. We recognize, of course, that the implications for many other global regions, and not least developing countries as both the source and destination of migration, are also very significant, not least in terms of the implications of the so called &lsquo;brain drain&rsquo; which suggests that the benefits migrants bring to the advanced economies may be at the cost of undermining development in their countries of origin. This need not be the case as migrants typically contribute materially to their destination country, while at the same time contributing to their dependents and countries of origin and advancing their own lives. The volume of remittances sent home by migrants to low and middle-income countries has grown rapidly in recent decades and in 2017 was estimated to exceed $466 billion, over three times foreign aid.Authors: Ian Goldin,Andrew Pitt,Benjamin Nabarro,Kathleen Boyle, CFA,

Economic Realities, Social Impacts & Political Choices

Former UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon defined migration as “an expression of the human aspiration for dignity, safety and a better future. It is part of the social fabric, part of our very make-up as a human family”. In recent years, however, and especially in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, immigration has become a toxic issue in election campaigns and the political debate in many advanced economies, with politicians and other interested parties trading insults and soundbites but leaving a proper evaluation of the real impacts of migration on the economy and society often absent from the noise.

Migration and the Economy

Mark May

Dan F Homan

Ji Cheong

Paola Mello

Masashi Miki

Anthony Moulder

Gareth M Phillips

This report, the third in the Technology at Work series, focuses on the automation driven by e-Commerce for physical goods. We look at the technology needed to automate order fulfillment, inventory management, and delivery when consumers shop online and examine the implications in a wide range of areas for industry, retailers, supply chains, real-estate, and transportation, looking too at the impact on labor and employment. Growth in e-Commerce is the main driver of warehouse automation, a driver which itself will increase with broadband and mobile device penetration. In Japan, 32% of all goods bought on the Internet were bought on smartphones in 2016, up from 27% a year earlier. Millennials, those most likely to shop online, will soon enter their peak spending years. Global e-Commerce sales have grown at a compound annual growth rate of 20% over the last decade, and online retail sales have gone from ~2% of total to ~8%%. While technology is not yet either capable or cost effective in all cases, this is likely to change. Our estimates show that that 80% of jobs in transportation, warehousing, and logistics are susceptible to automation as a consequence of the trends we observe in technology. Retail is one industry in which employment is likely to vanish, but unlike manufacturing jobs which are highly concentrated, the downfall of retail employment will affect every city and region. U.S. companies employ 2 million people just to do stock and order fulfillment work and over 90% of warehouse picking is currently done by hand. Migrating to automated picking gives productivity gains of 2x&ndash;3x that as compared to pick-to-conveyor operations and 5x&ndash;6x as compared to manual pick-to-pallet fulfillment centers. The adoption of technology is by no means uniform. While one-hour delivery is available when buying online in some parts of the U.S. and Europe, the average promised delivery time in Brazil is nine days. While e-Commerce penetration is 87% in the U.K., it is only 18% in Romania. By end industry, penetration is highest in clothing and sporting goods. The virtual world is also subject to physical constraints. Warehouse availability is now at an all-time low in the U.S. and land availability for warehouses is already a problem in London, where 60%&ndash;70% of industrial sites sold are &ldquo;lost&rdquo; to residential development. Online business models need 300% more warehousing space compared to store-based fulfillment. Based on forecasts from Euromonitor for global e-Commerce growth, over 2.3 billion square feet of new warehousing space will be required by 2035. Road traffic is a challenge too &mdash; kilometers traveled by light goods vehicles in the U.K. were 47% higher in 2015 compared to 2000, while kilometers traveled by passenger cars were only 5% higher. Authors: Martin Wilkie,Carl Benedikt Frey,Chinchih Chen,Ji Cheong,Nick Coulter,Dan F Homan,Mark May,Graeme McDonald,Paola Mello,Masashi Miki, CFA,Anthony Moulder,Gareth M Phillips,Alicia Yap, CFA,

Automating e-Commerce From Click to Pick to Door

Our Technology at Work series serves to highlight the implications of the disruption brought by the digital revolution. As we have shown in previous reports, 47% of jobs in the United States are at risk of automation over the forthcoming decades and similar shares have been estimated for other countries. This means the effects of the digital revolution are yet to be seen. In a recent interview in April 2017, Jack Ma, founder and Chairman of Alibaba, expects “decades of pain” as the Internet disrupts traditional businesses leading to “all sorts of industries and walks of life.”

Technology at Work v3.0

Ebrahim Rahbari

Brian Nolan

Matteo Richiardi

Luis Valenzuela Rivera

However, within-country inequality in the larger developing countries &mdash; the same economies that have enjoyed large income growth and narrowed the differences with rich countries, such as China, India, and Indonesia &mdash; has actually increased substantially in recent years. As a result, income inequality within countries now accounts for around a third of global inequality, when it was only one-fifth in 1988. The contribution of inter-country inequality has correspondingly shrunk. Of critical focus to our research, income inequality has increased substantially within many OECD countries over recent decades after a long period of decline. The extent to which income inequality in advanced economies has grown is now widely known, though the relative importance of the range of driving forces producing these trends is less clear, as is their importance to economic growth. Rising inequality is not only a concern from a fairness perspective, in itself and in terms of its impacts on social outcomes such as health, crime, and family structures; it is also now increasingly being seen as a core issue for macroeconomic performance, implicated in the economic crisis and slow recovery from it, and as representing a major threat to long-term growth and prosperity. A range of factors has been identified contributing to the rise in income inequality across OECD countries, including technological change, globalization, changes in labor market institutions, and weakening redistribution via taxes and transfers, as well as specific factors affecting the very top of the income distribution and the distribution of wealth and income arising from this. There remain substantial differences across studies as to the relative contribution of particular elements. What is more surprising, perhaps, is that the search for effective responses is still at an early stage, although recently international organizations such as the OECD and IMF have advanced some broad recommendations to tackle inequality while promoting growth. Against this background, our research program will focus on identifying the impacts of inequality on economic growth potential, social cohesion, and the political process. On the back of this, we shall collaboratively suggest a coherent set of responses that would address rising inequality in a manner that promotes inclusive growth. The Executive Summary of this report summarizes our initial findings and conclusions. Three significant points are worth stressing here. First, it appears increasingly clear to us that if the drivers of inequality are not addressed, then inequality may become an increasing drag on economic growth due to a variety of factors which we assess throughout this report and which we shall investigate further in future research. The drag reflects wasted potential and a skills mismatch within labor forces and also that more unequal societies are less successful at investing productively for the long term. Indeed, we highlight that more unequal countries now seem to be growing less robustly than more equal ones, i.e., growth may be lower and more fragile at higher levels of economic inequality. From an investment perspective, an inequality-driven economic drag could take quite different paths in different countries leading to a consequent impact on longer-term relative asset prices and exchange rates. In other words, and put bluntly, it makes good economic sense to understand and address inequality. Second, economic inequalities are everywhere, which makes addressing the underlying issues with simple policy responses very challenging. We show in this report that inequalities have grown not just between countries but between regions within countries, between generations, between industries, and between firms. In particular, demographic forces, most notably the aging population in the developed markets, are creating a new set of inter-generational inequality challenges that are likely to get worse. Globally, wealth inequality is significantly higher than income inequality. Putting an inter-generational lens on this sharpens the issue. The debate around inequality thus needs to be related to issues such as youth unemployment, social mobility, and pension funding. Third, inequality, as well as the impact of other exacerbating factors such as lower social care budgets and the reduced provision of other government-funded services, is now clearly a critical focus in the mainstream political process and in election campaigns in many countries. In aggregate, it appears that inequality is contributing markedly to declining social trust, the erosion of social cohesion, and the fragmentation of the political process. Inequality will likely be an increasing factor in election outcomes, with social media playing a growing role in shaping perceptions. A consensus urgently needs to be reached between government, the public sector, the private sector, and society at large about how to tackle the challenge of inequality in a way that promotes inclusive and necessary economic growth. At the moment, we risk political paralysis, or worse. Authors: Brian Nolan,Ebrahim Rahbari,Matteo Richiardi,Luis Valenzuela Rivera,Benjamin Nabarro,Authors: Brian Nolan,Ebrahim Rahbari,Matteo Richiardi,Luis Valenzuela Rivera,Benjamin Nabarro,Authors: Authors: Brian Nolan,Ebrahim Rahbari,Matteo Richiardi,Luis Valenzuela Rivera,Benjamin Nabarro,Authors: Brian Nolan,Ebrahim Rahbari,Matteo Richiardi,Luis Valenzuela Rivera,Benjamin Nabarro,

Addressing a Growing Challenge

On average, income inequality within developing economies is very high, particularly in Africa, and higher than in the industrialized world, which creates its own major development challenges. But, in aggregate, global income inequality has declined from the late 1980s, and particularly rapidly from about 2008, as developing economies have, on average, closed some of the gap with industrialized countries. Previously, at least since the early 19th century, global inequality had increased. The driving factors behind this change have included the very real impact of globalization and technology on trade and employment, and also the transition of the formerly Communist bloc in Eastern Europe. In very simple terms, globalization has been a positive force in leveling inter-country inequality over the past 30 years. At the same time, the share of the world’s population estimated to be below the World Bank’s $1.90/day extreme poverty threshold has fallen drastically, from 35% in 1990 to 11% in 2013. Despite a major expansion in world population, the number of people in extreme poverty has fallen dramatically from 1.85 billion to under 800 million.

Inequality and Prosperity in the Industrialized World

Johanna Chua

Michael Osborne

Peter Chalif

Craig Holmes

In this new report, Oxford Martin School academics; Dr. Carl Benedikt Frey, Associate Professor Michael Osborne and Dr. Craig Holmes expand their theories on the changing nature of innovation and work and the associated implications for the future of employment and society more widely. Based on their methodology that predicted 47 percent of U.S. jobs were at risk from automation, the authors now look at the probabilities of jobs at risk across the world as well as the disparities of job risk between cities. To protect against jobs being eliminated due to automation, it is important to recognize which characteristics are most likely to be associated with a given job being automated &mdash; perception and manipulation, creative intelligence, and social intelligence are the three bottlenecks to automation. Cities and regions that have invested in skilled industries remain relatively safe from automation and technological dynamism will remain the best way to maximize employment and to benefit positively from new technologies. Education is also a very important tool that policymakers will need to leverage in preparation for the effects of accelerated technological change. Throughout this report, Citi Research analysts drill deeper into specific industries to highlight a number of sectors already feeling the effects of automation as well as areas where technology is helping to create new jobs. The Citi Research Economics team investigates whether traditional measurement tools are failing to capture the productivity and GDP improvements as well as the subsequent inflation effects that come from accelerated technological change. Finally, we look to identify adequate policy responses for the issues highlighted in this report. We hope that you enjoy this Citi GPS report. We look forward to sharing the results of the exciting collaboration between Citi and the Oxford Martin School in future reports. Andrew Pitt Global Head of Research Citi Ian Goldin Director of the Oxford Martin School Professor of Globalisation &amp; DevelopmentUniversity of Oxford Authors: Carl Benedikt Frey,Michael Osborne,Craig Holmes,Ebrahim Rahbari,Robert Garlick,Graeme McDonald,Elizabeth Curmi,Johanna Chua,Peter Chalif,Martin Wilkie,Authors: Carl Benedikt Frey,Michael Osborne,Craig Holmes,Ebrahim Rahbari,Robert Garlick,Graeme McDonald,Elizabeth Curmi, PhD.,Johanna Chua,Peter Chalif,Martin Wilkie,Authors: Carl Benedikt Frey,Michael Osborne,Craig Holmes,Ebrahim Rahbari,Robert Garlick,Graeme McDonald,Elizabeth Curmi, PhD.,Johanna Chua,Peter Chalif,Martin Wilkie,

The Future Is Not What It Used to Be

It is a pleasure to introduce Technology at Work v2.0: The Future Is Not What It Used To Be. This report is the third in a long-term series of Citi GPS reports co-produced by Citi and the Oxford Martin School at the University of Oxford in order to explore some of the most pressing global challenges of the 21st century. The report further explores the concepts introduced in our February 2015 report, Technology at Work: The Future of Innovation and Employment, which marked the introduction of the Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Employment, a long-term program of research at the University of Oxford supported by Citi that will focus on the implications of a rapidly changing technological landscape for economies and societies.

Technology at Work v2.0

<h2>Key Trends Shaping the Global Economy and Society</h2> <h3>Our world will change more this century than during any other time in human history. Change will happen faster than ever before. It will also affect more people than ever before.</h3> Globalization has linked us all together, with countries, companies and individuals connected as nodes in a global system of unprecedented complexity. Economic fortunes will rise and fall dramatically. Demographic shifts will transform geopolitics and growth prospects. Technology, education and income growth will drive innovation. All of these changes present extraordinary new opportunities but simultaneously new systemic risks that threaten the entire system. Good governance will mitigate those risks and create unparalleled opportunity. Bad governance will invite chaos and crises. Those who grasp the direction of the wind and harness its power will be separated from anyone stuck in outdated 20th century ways of understanding this new world. This report forecasts the winds of change—their direction, speed, and intensity. It provides, like most weather forecasts, cause for hope but also concern. Forecasts are not predictions. We nevertheless are confident about the key choices. The 21st century could hail an era of unprecedented opportunities for prosperity. It could also usher in opportunities for cataclysmic shocks, making the recent financial crisis a harbinger of more severe storms to come. The changes created by globalization, demographics, technology, economic growth, systemic risk, and governance will serve as a guide to 21st century businesses, investors, and governments. This report examines each of these key drivers of change. Authors: Ian Goldin,Andrew Pitt,Authors: Ian Goldin,Andrew Pitt,Authors: Ian Goldin,Andrew Pitt,

Key Trends Shaping the Global Economy and Society

Future Opportunities, Future Shocks

Global Insights

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